PDF herunterladen
It first examines how economic theory evolved from classical political economy (which emphasized intersectoral profit rate differences as drivers of change) to neoclassical economics (which features static equilibrium with zero profits) and how this has obscured profits in policy debates about structural change. It then develops a new theoretical framework that reintegrates profits into explanations of structural change. It combines imperfect competition models with capital theory to show not only how sectoral profit opportunities drive investment activity, but also how incumbent sectoral interests resist change to avoid “asset stranding”—the premature decommissioning of existing investments. Finally, the project applies the framework to the low-carbon energy transition, in which relative sectoral profits (not just costs) and the defense of incumbent profits drive firm and petrostate decisions; and European Union economic renewal, in which the focus on “competitiveness” misses how potential investors decide based on relative expected profitability.
Recommended Reading
Semieniuk, Gregor, Emanuele Campiglio, Jean-François Mercure, Ulrich Volz, and Neil R. Edwards (2021). “Low-Carbon Transition Risks for Finance.” WIREs Climate Change 12 (1): e678. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.678.
Semieniuk, Gregor, Philip B. Holden, Jean-François Mercure, et al. (2022). “Stranded Fossil-Fuel Assets Translate to Major Losses for Investors in Advanced Economies.” Nature Climate Change 12 (6): 532–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y.
Semieniuk, Gregor, Isabella M. Weber, Iain S. Weaver, et al. (2025). “Best of Times, Worst of Times: Record Fossil-Fuel Profits, Inflation and Inequality.” Energy Research & Social Science 127: 104221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104221.
© privat
2026/2027
Gregor Semieniuk, PhD
Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy
University of Massachusetts Amherst
Born in 1985 in Herdecke, Germany
PhD in Economics, The New School for Social Research
Arbeitsvorhaben
Profits in Structural Transformation
This research project argues that profit dynamics are a crucial but overlooked driver of systemic economic structural transformation. Despite facing urgent and complex challenges requiring structural transformation—such as decarbonization and supply chain restructuring—current policy approaches fail to adequately consider how profits and profit differentials between sectors influence whether and how change occurs. This project seeks to resurrect a more central role for profits in thinking about structural transformation.It first examines how economic theory evolved from classical political economy (which emphasized intersectoral profit rate differences as drivers of change) to neoclassical economics (which features static equilibrium with zero profits) and how this has obscured profits in policy debates about structural change. It then develops a new theoretical framework that reintegrates profits into explanations of structural change. It combines imperfect competition models with capital theory to show not only how sectoral profit opportunities drive investment activity, but also how incumbent sectoral interests resist change to avoid “asset stranding”—the premature decommissioning of existing investments. Finally, the project applies the framework to the low-carbon energy transition, in which relative sectoral profits (not just costs) and the defense of incumbent profits drive firm and petrostate decisions; and European Union economic renewal, in which the focus on “competitiveness” misses how potential investors decide based on relative expected profitability.
Recommended Reading
Semieniuk, Gregor, Emanuele Campiglio, Jean-François Mercure, Ulrich Volz, and Neil R. Edwards (2021). “Low-Carbon Transition Risks for Finance.” WIREs Climate Change 12 (1): e678. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.678.
Semieniuk, Gregor, Philip B. Holden, Jean-François Mercure, et al. (2022). “Stranded Fossil-Fuel Assets Translate to Major Losses for Investors in Advanced Economies.” Nature Climate Change 12 (6): 532–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01356-y.
Semieniuk, Gregor, Isabella M. Weber, Iain S. Weaver, et al. (2025). “Best of Times, Worst of Times: Record Fossil-Fuel Profits, Inflation and Inequality.” Energy Research & Social Science 127: 104221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104221.